CanFirst Capital Roundtable Navigating Canada’s Commercial Real Estate Market in 2025: Finding Opportunity in Uncertainty
The CanFirst Capital Roundtable is an ongoing internal discussion where CanFirst’s investment and strategy team comes together to analyze key market forces shaping commercial real estate in Canada. These conversations provide insight into the economic, geopolitical, and industry-specific trends that influence investment decisions, risk management, and development strategies. By bringing together diverse expertise within the firm, these discussions offer a candid look at how CanFirst is navigating an evolving market landscape.
It is often said that uncertainty breeds opportunity. For investors, however, uncertainty can just as easily lead to paralysis. As Canada’s commercial real estate sector grapples with shifting trade policies, inflationary pressures, and changing capital markets, decision-makers face a familiar dilemma: act now or wait for clarity. A recent CanFirst Capital Roundtable discussion brought together key investment strategists to consider this very question. The consensus was clear—while volatility may be the prevailing sentiment in today’s market, the companies and investors who move decisively will be best positioned when conditions stabilize.
“Uncertainty is inevitable. The only question is whether you let it hold you back—or use it to get ahead,” observed Luke Chisholm, Vice President of Asset Management at CanFirst. The conversation underscored that while caution has its merits, inaction can be just as costly. A combination of careful risk management and forward-thinking investment remains the best strategy in an unpredictable economic climate.
Tariffs & Trade Policy: A Market Catalyst
Trade tensions and new tariff structures have added yet another layer of complexity for commercial real estate investors. Some companies have scrambled to adjust their supply chains, while others have opted to take a wait-and-see approach. “We’ve been overly dependent on the U.S. for decades. Maybe this is the wake-up call we needed,” said Chisholm.
The question remains: will these pressures push businesses toward reshoring, increasing Canada’s industrial and manufacturing capacity?
Investment Strategies: The Case for Adaptation
With volatility persisting across financial markets, the real estate sector has not been immune. Higher interest rates, fluctuating asset values, and economic uncertainty have left many investors reassessing their strategies. At CanFirst, the focus remains on capital preservation and long-term stability. “The market rewards conviction during times of uncertainty,” Chisholm noted. “The best opportunities often emerge when others hesitate.”
“The market rewards conviction during times of uncertainty”
Real estate investment, at its core, is about timing—those who are willing to make informed bets in periods of hesitation often find themselves ahead of the curve when confidence returns to the market.
The Future of Development: A Window of Opportunity
Development, as always, requires foresight. Rising construction costs and tightening credit conditions have slowed the pace of new projects.
A More Independent Canadian Economy?
Beyond real estate, there is a broader economic shift at play. As Canada contends with global trade instability, the idea of strengthening domestic economic corridors has gained renewed attention. Calls to reduce interprovincial trade barriers have resurfaced, reinforcing the argument that Canada should focus on its own internal efficiencies rather than relying on external stability.
Should these conversations translate into policy changes, the implications for commercial real estate would be significant. A more integrated national economy would drive demand for logistics hubs, manufacturing facilities, and transportation infrastructure, strengthening Canada’s ability to operate independently of external shocks.
he commercial real estate market in Canada is undergoing a transition, not a crisis. While uncertainty presents challenges, it also creates opportunities for those willing to adapt. At CanFirst, the strategy remains clear: identify resilient asset classes, position investments strategically, and act with confidence in the face of volatility. As Chisholm put it, “The investors who succeed in these moments aren’t the ones waiting for the dust to settle—they’re the ones making decisions before the opportunity becomes obvious.”